If we listen to Klára Ungár, a liberal politician and economist, and over two decades ago, a much younger Viktor Orbán’s former colleague, the Hungarian prime minister has gone too far and can no longer save himself from his own downfall.
“There is no longer anything that Orbán can do, in order to save himself. Whether he cooperates or digs in his heels, in the medium-term, he is finished. And I think that this is what he would like as well: to rest and enjoy the wealth that he has amassed through theft, to read and to watch soccer games. But he is fearful of prison. And with good reason,” writes Ms. Ungár on her Facebook page.
Reacting to a comment from one of her followers, Ms. Ungár added that it is likely going to be one of his own who will stab the prime minister in the back, as a handful of Fidesz supporters eventually, conveniently and rather suddenly discover that constitutional democracy is in perilous state, thus compelling them to defend it against the authoritarian prime minister.
An analysis on the liberal 444.hu news site sees things quite differently. According to one of their regular columnists, “magyarip,” the prime minister is in his element as the world converges on Hungary, as major news networks report live all the way from the Keleti railway station in Budapest to the refugee reception camp in Röszke, a small town in southeastern Hungary, along the border with Serbia. Mr. Orbán not only loves a good fight, but he needs perpetual conflict with a shadowy enemy, a nefarious outside world that gangs up on Hungary, in order to survive politically at home.
Mr. Orbán wants desperately to be seen as the “strongman of Europe,” as well as a type of modern-day János Hunyadi, who is the defender of “Christian” Europe, keeping the Muslim “invaders” at the gates. (Hunyadi was a 15h century Hungarian military leader, who battled the Ottomans.) Hungary serving as the protector of western Christianity and European civilization, the gatekeepers on the edges of this spiritual empire, forms a critical part of the country’s historical narrative and self-image, especially as espoused on the right. It should be noted, and Éva Balogh does exactly this in the Hungarian Spectrum, that talk of defending Christianity has little to do with religion (Hungarian society is quite secular, and certainly much more so than countries like Poland), but everything to do with race and racism.
Mr. Orbán reads the cover page of the pro-government Magyar Idők daily, which features a headline warning readers about the risks of Europe turning into an Islamic caliphate.
According to 444.hu, Mr. Orbán’s solution to the refugee crisis is to essentially make it impossible for any Syrian to get further than a few metres from the border between Hungary and Serbia, and to send them back as soon as possible after their arrival. Hungarian authorities will only accept those people as refugees, whose lives are in danger if they were to return to the neighbouring country from which they entered Hungary. Serbia, however, is categorically considered to be a “safe country,” so none of the Syrians entering Hungary from the southern border will be eligible for refugee status.
Mr. Orbán has convinced himself that with the exception of some ruling European elites, most of the EU’s population, as well as burgeoning far-right movements (like the Front National in France) will see him as the continent’s “saviour.” Mr. Orbán also predicts that the mobilization of Hungarian soldiers (which has already begun), will serve as a show of force, strength and stability within Hungary itself, and will be appreciated by most Hungarian voters. As of September 15th, both the military and the police will be mobilized to protect Hungary’s southern border, where the new barrier between Hungary and Serbia is expanding by more than 10 km per day, to eventually run the full 177 km length of the frontier. According to the pro-government polling firm (I recommend always taking their data with a grain of salt), Fidesz support has grown in the past few weeks and now stands at 31%. Jobbik is still in second place with 15% support, while the Socialists are at a dismal 8% and the liberal Democratic Coalition (DK) at 6%. Nearly 31% of the population is undecided. Fidesz is now apparently taking support away from Jobbik, as Mr. Orbán’s strongman image sets in. However, it is worth keeping in mind that any gains for Fidesz are within the margin of error.
But there are major problems with Mr. Orbán’s plan, and most troublesome is the fact that with the current rate of over 3,000 refugees crossing into Hungary from Serbia each day and the so far non-existent refugee camps and infrastructure along the border means that Hungarian authorities will have to keep tens of thousands of stranded Syrian men, women and children in abysmal conditions for long periods of time, even as the cooler, rainy weather begins to set in. The world’s eyes are on Hungary, and the inhumane conditions within these makeshift camps or open fields will shock the world, and probably force the reticent EU to take clear action against Hungary (such as suspending EU funding or Hungary’s voting rights on EU bodies). Public opinion, once enraged and united, can be a very powerful force.
There are some voices in Fidesz circles who claim that Mr. Orbán and the three Eastern European countries he managed to turn into allies on this issue will give in to German demands when it comes to the quota system of accepting refugees. The EC currently expects Hungary to accept 54,000 refugees by December. What Mr. Orbán wants is to significantly augment EU funding coming to Hungary, if it is to integrate so many Syrians. But the question remains: Can Mr. Orbán blackmail Germany or push it into a corner on this issue?
We know that this tactic did not work out very well for another European prime minister, namely Alexis Tsipras…
