If the opposition needs any further impetus to somehow coordinate and get its act together, a new poll by Medián should give them reason for alarm. According to one of Hungary’s most reputable polling firms, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz is on track to win a two-thirds majority on Sunday–performing better than he did in 2014. This is based on the prediction that Fidesz has managed to effectively mobilize its voters in rural Hungary, especially in villages. It’s worth noting that Medián is the only pollster predicting a super majority for Fidesz.
Let’s look at the numbers. When it comes to votes for party lists, through which 93 seats are decided, Medián predicts (and the polling firm tries to take into consideration the impact of voters that are hiding their true intentions):
- FIDESZ: 46%
- JOBBIK: 19%
- MSZP-Párbeszéd: 14%
- Politics Can Be Different (LMP) 7%
- Democratic Coalition (DK): 6%
- Momentum: 3%
- Együtt: 1%
- Two-Tailed Dog Party: 1%
- Other parties: 3%
These polling numbers also have a bearing on votes cast on the second ballot, for individual riding-level candidates in 106 electoral districts. But the most significant factor here is whether the opposition parties are able to unite and field a single candidate in swing ridings. On Wednesday morning, MSZP-P, DK and Együtt reached an agreement impacting a dozen electoral districts, where the Fidesz candidate will face a more united centre-left. (At the time of writing this article, LMP only agreed to pull back its candidate in one swing district, namely Csepel-Soroksár, where the Együtt candidate, Szabolcs Szabó, is left standing against Szilárd Németh of Fidesz.)
Traditionally, it was believed that higher turn-out favours the opposition. Medián’s new poll calls traditional wisdom into question. Fully 66% of respondents are committed to voting on Sunday, but one of the most significant jumps in projected turn-out is in villages, where Fidesz is the strongest. In Hungary’s smallest communities, 68% of respondents indicated they would vote (up from 54% merely one month ago). Fidesz is mobilizing successfully. Fidesz support in villages stands at 48% according to this poll.
Medián’s seat projection in the new Hungarian parliament gives Fidesz 142. This is up significantly from 133 seats in 2014. Jobbik is predicted to have 22 (down from 23), MSZP-P together will have 19, LMP will end up with 8 and DK with 7. Medián also predicts one seat won by the German minority list. This poll, of course, does not take into the consideration the deal agreed to this morning in Csepel-Soroksár, which gives the Együtt candidate a good chance of keeping this riding and returning to parliament.
However, whether Együtt, MSZP-P, DK, LMP or Jobbik wins a riding here or a riding there, will not matter one bit, if Fidesz-KDNP is returned with a two-thirds majority. Not only will every opposition party face the justified wrath of 55% Hungarians who want to see a change in government, they will also face annihilation at the hands of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz.