According to a Medián poll released Wednesday, Fidesz has seen its support drop by 7 percent among decided voters. As the campaign ahead of national elections on 8th April heats up, the poll shows that more Hungarians are planning on exercising their vote–going from 52% in early 2017 to 56% at the end of January 2018. Historically, higher turn-out tends to favour the left-centre or liberal opposition, so it is in Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s interest to keep turn-out low in the general population.
Medián’s January poll found that among decided voters certain to cast a ballot, Fidesz garners the support of 53%, while in this same demographic Jobbik stands at 18%, the Hungarian Socialist Party – Párbeszéd alliance at 11%, the Democratic Coalition at 9% and Politics Can Be Different at 6%. All other parties are well under the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament, including Együtt (1%), Momentum (1%) and Gyula Thürmer’s openly communist Munkáspárt, also at 1%. It may be worth noting, that for the Munkáspárt, reaching 1% in the Medián poll for the first time in a long while and thus being listed separately, rather than lumped together as “other,” is positive news.
The Medián poll for January 2018, appearing in HVG.
The MSZP-Párbeszéd alliance shows some potential for growth. At the moment, 14% of respondents noted that they can see themselves voting for the partnership led by nominee for prime minister, Gergely Karácsony. In fact, even 24% of Fidesz supporters seem to fancy Mr. Karácsony and would be pleased to see him play a prominent role in national politics.
Perhaps the most important take-away from the Medián poll, is that in recent weeks Fidesz voters have become more uncertain. The proportion of Fidesz supporters who say that they will participate in the April elections decreased from 75% in November 2017 to 70% in January 2018.
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In a Publicus poll released this week exploring the issue of corruption, we find that a majority of Hungarian population believes that the billionaire Fidesz mayor of Viktor Orbán’s home town of Felcsút, Lőrinc Mészáros, is deeply corrupt. As our readers will know, Mr. Mészáros became one of the wealthiest people in Hungary since Mr. Orbán returned to power in 2010. Under the System of National Cooperation, Mr. Mészáros’ net worth has doubled every single year and in 2016/2017 it had increased by 100 billion forints in just 12 months. Mr. Mészáros is now the fifth wealthiest person in Hungary and there is no precedent in Hungary for such a rapid increase in fortunes. In 2017, Mr. Mészáros purchased a 49% stake in MKB Bank, which had been re-nationalized by the Orbán government two years prior. In July 2017, he and his wife bought a commercial radio station in the Lake Balaton region. In August 2017, Mr. Mészáros purchased three vineyards, adding to his already five wineries. In October 2017, following legal action, the Orbán government was forced to admit that it had spent, through the company that administers a state-run food stamps system, 5 billion forints of taxpayer money on products and services offered by Mr. Mészáros’ companies. To end the year well, in December 2017, business interests tied directly to Mr. Mészáros bought the Mátrai Erőmű Zrt. power station.
Viktor Orbán whispers to Lőrinc Mészáros
According to the January 2018 poll by Publicus, 46% of Hungarians believe that Mr. Mészáros’ wealth expanded so meteorically thanks to his friend, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and that his wealth is not truly his, but is simply under his name. An additional 20% of Hungarians believe that Mr. Mészáros gathered his wealth through corrupt practices.
Mr. Mészáros is widely believed to be a stooge for Prime Minister Orbán. The Együtt party was sued for making this allegation, but the court rejected Mr. Mészáros’ defamation lawsuit.
Before we all get too excited about the impending fall of the Orban regime… basically what we are talking about here, as best scenario, is him failing to get his 2/3 of seats?
But this is interesting:
“Historically, higher turn-out tends to favour the left-centre or liberal opposition, so it is in Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s interest to keep turn-out low in the general population”.
In other words, it is in his interest to keep the campaign as low key as possible because whatever the situation his followers in Hungary, Slovakia and Erdely will vote but the (potential) democratic opposition voters will only turn out if roused sufficiently?
Problem is Orban doesn’t do “low key”, he doesn’t know when to stop- and one day he will overreach himself.
There is an interesting, possible apocryphal story I was told about Orban last week which kind of proves this point. At school as a teenager he ran with a gang of bullying thugs (plus ca change…) whom a fellow student upset. Anyway, Orban and his gang finally got their hands on this teenager and gave him a frightful beating in the schoolyard. Orban’s pals noticed and shouted that a teacher was coming- they ran away and escaped punishment (as the victim was too scared to testify). However the bold Viktor just couldn’t resist giving the poor prostrate soul on the ground one more kick to his head and was thus caught by the teacher and punished. There is a metaphor and moral there.