In recent months, the number of Fidesz voters registering from abroad (primarily from neighbouring countries) has increased markedly, thanks to an active voter mobilization campaign funded by the Hungarian state, but done on behalf of the ruling party. (One small example of this is Hungary’s ambassador to Canada, Bálint Ódor and his recent interview in Montreal’s Magyar Krónika.) Another example is a letter sent to 500,000 Hungarians abroad from Prime Minister Viktor Orbán calling on them to register on the voting list ahead of April. Registered voters from abroad form a hegemonic voting bloc for Fidesz. In 2014, more than 94% cast ballots for the ruling party. By now, more than one million Hungarians abroad have been granted Hungarian citizenship and at least half a million have been contacted personally with reminders to register.
Once registered, each voter remains on the list of voters for ten years. As such, it is correct to assume that there are thousands of deceased individuals who are still counted as voters. What this means in practice is this: the widow of a deceased voter will receive a ballot in the mail. She will be able to cast a ballot on behalf of her dead husband, as well as on her behalf. There are no checks in place to prevent this from happening.
Last summer, an average of 2,000 Hungarians abroad registered to vote each month. By September, the number of monthly registrations increased to 3,000 and in both November and December they skyrocketed to 8,000. Currently, 315,000 Hungarians abroad are registered to vote. By April 2018, this number will likely approach half a million. Already as things currently stand, Hungarians voting from abroad form a strong enough and hegemonic voting block to decide the fate of 3 parliamentary mandates in the ruling party’s favour. If the opposition is able to mobilize its voters, Hungarians from abroad could be the ones to give Prime Minister Orbán his two-thirds majority (rather than a simple majority, which is all but guaranteed either way.)
The pro-Fidesz Origo website published a simulation of how the seats in parliament would be divided, based on aggregated polling data from November and December 2017. The model is based on polling data from Publicus, Závecz, Republikon, Medián, Tárki, Századvég, Iránytű and Nézőpont. I question the credibility of Nézőpont (openly pro-Fidesz) and Iránytű (affiliated with Jobbik). According to the aggregate numbers, however, the Hungarian parliament would look like this:
- Fidesz: 143
- The left: 28
- Jobbik: 19
- LMP: 9
The left refers first and foremost to MSZP and DK–these are the only parties that presently stand a chance of winning any seats in parliament. The only exception is Gergely Karácsony, affiliated with Párbeszéd, who will lead MSZP’s party list and is therefore guaranteed a seat in parliament.
According to Origo’s calculations (and these are in line with earlier projections from other sources), the left stands to win in only riding–namely in Angyalföld-Újlipótváros (Budapest). In 2014, the left managed to win in 10 ridings. This shows the continued demise of the left/liberal parties in Hungary.