In recent months, the number of Fidesz voters registering from abroad (primarily from neighbouring countries) has increased markedly, thanks to an active voter mobilization campaign funded by the Hungarian state, but done on behalf of the ruling party. (One small example of this is Hungary’s ambassador to Canada, Bálint Ódor and his recent interview in Montreal’s Magyar Krónika.) Another example is a letter sent to 500,000 Hungarians abroad from Prime Minister Viktor Orbán calling on them to register on the voting list ahead of April. Registered voters from abroad form a hegemonic voting bloc for Fidesz. In 2014, more than 94% cast ballots for the ruling party. By now, more than one million Hungarians abroad have been granted Hungarian citizenship and at least half a million have been contacted personally with reminders to register.
Once registered, each voter remains on the list of voters for ten years. As such, it is correct to assume that there are thousands of deceased individuals who are still counted as voters. What this means in practice is this: the widow of a deceased voter will receive a ballot in the mail. She will be able to cast a ballot on behalf of her dead husband, as well as on her behalf. There are no checks in place to prevent this from happening.
Last summer, an average of 2,000 Hungarians abroad registered to vote each month. By September, the number of monthly registrations increased to 3,000 and in both November and December they skyrocketed to 8,000. Currently, 315,000 Hungarians abroad are registered to vote. By April 2018, this number will likely approach half a million. Already as things currently stand, Hungarians voting from abroad form a strong enough and hegemonic voting block to decide the fate of 3 parliamentary mandates in the ruling party’s favour. If the opposition is able to mobilize its voters, Hungarians from abroad could be the ones to give Prime Minister Orbán his two-thirds majority (rather than a simple majority, which is all but guaranteed either way.)
The pro-Fidesz Origo website published a simulation of how the seats in parliament would be divided, based on aggregated polling data from November and December 2017. The model is based on polling data from Publicus, Závecz, Republikon, Medián, Tárki, Századvég, Iránytű and Nézőpont. I question the credibility of Nézőpont (openly pro-Fidesz) and Iránytű (affiliated with Jobbik). According to the aggregate numbers, however, the Hungarian parliament would look like this:
- Fidesz: 143
- The left: 28
- Jobbik: 19
- LMP: 9
The projection shows Fidesz winning all but one of Hungary’s single constituency ridings.
The left refers first and foremost to MSZP and DK–these are the only parties that presently stand a chance of winning any seats in parliament. The only exception is Gergely Karácsony, affiliated with Párbeszéd, who will lead MSZP’s party list and is therefore guaranteed a seat in parliament.
According to Origo’s calculations (and these are in line with earlier projections from other sources), the left stands to win in only riding–namely in Angyalföld-Újlipótváros (Budapest). In 2014, the left managed to win in 10 ridings. This shows the continued demise of the left/liberal parties in Hungary.
Let’s put private assumptions aside.
Any of those outside of the country who can vote, may as well vote for an international socialist party as well.
So those cheating “widows” can cast not just one, but two votes for the Marxist party as well.
So, do not complain needlessly, it may work best for your beloved party as well.
Just have to become sensible and offer a platform that can help the population, not just a few bloody rulers.
That is where your commerades have the problem.
The world had enough of their deflunct ideology.
Go and get to work on it !!!
I and the other readers would appreciate it if you managed to obtain a small speck of basic knowledge on contemporary Hungary before offering comments or lectures. The fact of the matter is that in 2014, more than 94% of voters abroad cast ballots for Fidesz. There is no reason to believe that this time the proportions will be any different.
Fact number 2: Hungary has, at most, one “Marxist” party: it is called the Munkáspárt, it is led by Gyula Thürmer and the party is bankrolled/sustained on life support by Fidesz.
Not mentioned in the piece but pertinent to the topic in hand is that whilst the regime are facilitating their supporters (dead or alive) in Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine to vote, Orban has actually made it more difficult for Hungarians in the western part of the EU to exercise their democratic right:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/opinion/hungary-s-good-and-bad-voters/
Are there candidates running to represent those voters who do NOT live in Hungary ?
Just how are those representative districts drawn ?
Just curious !
It is true that Hungarians in Transylvania and other neighboring countries heavily favor Fidesz. But what is stopping the other parties from introducing a platform that would cater to these voters? Do you think that Gyurcsanyi and his constant attacks on them is the way to go in that regard? There are also many Hungarians with citizenship living in places like Canada, where I believe they tend to be more sympathetic towards the Marxist-globalist viewpoint, in line with the locally dominant ideology. They could do more to mobilize them perhaps?
I also disagree with the Marxist comment you made. It is more of a neo-Marxist movement, which ditched “workers of the world unite” and adopted ‘bankers of the world unite”, because they see big finance as one of the means to achieve global government, an original Marxist goal. In this regard, the Western world and Hungary in fact are full of such parties. Most of the political, MSM and academic elites are in fact aligned with it in my view. It is more of a matter of perspective rather than true or false as you put it.
Like Mr.Adams stated above, the last time 94% of them voted for Fidesz. Seems he is expecting at least the same ,or even higher percentage victory for Fidesz.
That means all this efforts by KMH and HFP was an absolute failure.
What is the position in Canada regarding Hungarians who wish to vote? In order to do so (as is the case in the UK and Ireland) do they have to travel to the Hungarian Embassy?
In the UK, this can necessitate a round journey of 100s of kms, whereas Orban’s voters in Romania etc merely have to send in a (unverified) postal vote, if I understand the system correctly
This is the case – I guess there will be a couple polling stations in Canada. This is the point – the system is intended to favor the governing party.
Peter & assorted fascist sycophants
WTF are you talking about ?
“Neo Marxist movement … dominant ideology…bankers of the world … global government”? Add “the Jews” and you will match The Daily Stormer, or Fölkischer Beobachter if we replace some terms.
“Who is stopping…?” The Orban regime is stopping everyone else to do anything on the field of politics by denying media and funding, now even confiscating the little funds the opposition parties retained (the most dangerous got hit hardest).
The other part of the same operation is to pump practically unlimited resources into the Fid media onslaught : grant all frequencies, all money and all regulation support, incl. turning the public media into a party outlet, most of this illegal even under the current laws.
Finally, the Orban regime’s new election system is heavily biased in their favor and they are still rearranging the goal posts.
I don’t know your age and fitness, but challenge you to a boxing match to vent out our anger; some Fidesz like conditions though, you can fight with the hand of your choice (the other is tied behind your back), I can also kick and there is no knock down or KO until the end of the round (I can kick the s… out of you until then).
What? Don’t whinge, “clueless .. loosers”.
Mobilize yourself and fight harder.
“Add the Jews”. Sorry to break it to you, but in Europe, it is the marxist-globalist left which added the Jews on the collateral damage list, along with gays and women’s basic right to safety. There seems to be a clear correlation at this moment between what you call progressives being in charge for the past few decades and the prevalence of anti-semitic attacks. For instance, in Sweden it was found that only 5% of anti-Semitic attacks are carried out by far right movements. The other 95%? Well!!! And I can tell you this much, I would personally feel much safer wearing the star of David somewhere in Hungary than in most West European cities these days.
OBSERVER;
So, now the goal is violence?
The government deny the media the funds?
You want the government to finance the media from the taxpayers hard earned money?
That’s like back to Hitler and Stalin.
Plus you are preaching violence.
You are a dangerous person, your place may be in North Korea, Iran, etc.
Bendeguz,
The Hungarian government uses lavish public funds to keep the ruling party’s media empire afloat. Without public funds, not a single pro-government media organ would survive.
This is your final warning. You will no longer be permitted to comment here, unless you meet the minimum threshold of basic knowledge on issues pertaining to politics and public affairs in Hungary.
“This is your final warning. You will no longer be permitted to comment here, unless you meet the minimum threshold of basic knowledge on issues pertaining to politics and public affairs in Hungary.”
Will you be applying the same policy towards those who comment here, who you agree with ideologically speaking? I personally read plenty of comments on your site which in my view contained gross distortions in regards to the situation in Hungary. Funny, I never saw such a reaction from you in those circumstances!
And “meeting a minimum threshold of knowledge”? On a forum? I would understand this demand of anyone contributing an article perhaps, which is where you often neglected to apply such a criteria in my view. I mean, I read articles on this site where claims were made in regards to Hungary being a dictatorship and so on, even though freedom works ranks Hungary as a democracy, or in regards to “mafia state”, although Hungary’s corruption rankings have pretty much been within a relatively tight range in the past two decades or so. And I should mention that it comes within the context of international-minded organizations doing these rankings which seem to have some very suspect biases on occasion, not in the favor of what Hungary currently stands for ideologically. Of course, that betrays extreme bias more than ignorance perhaps, but false statements are false statements, regardless of intent and you seem to have no problems with that.
Censorship is a dangerous tool to use in my view, even if it is on a relatively obscure site like this. We have had this discussion before when you seemed eager to censor me whenever I wrote something inconvenient, even though I was largely respectful, on topic and factual.
HFP
Is also think that the alt-c alt-v commando flooding all sites with the empty slogans (e.g. Orban is winning) and propaganda panels (e.g. Soros plan) against all evidence add no value and just muddle the discussions, which is the trolls goal after all.
I can also flood every lost with the political equivalent of f…k you, but this is not our way.
Cut the troll commando for a couple of months to give them time to do some research and thinking.
You are close, this is like back to Mussolini, Orban is a fascist, but leave Hitler out.
Our fair bout of box won’t be violence, not at all. Just as the 2018 election in Hun will be free and fair, right?
Move your brains a bit , provided you …
OK Mr. Adams; Please post the required test, I want to take, that your publication requires to verify one’s knowledge of Hungary. That you stated being the pre-requisit of posting here.
And if I may say, since according to your bio posted above,that you are a native born Canadian and the graduate of Concordia and received your PhD from Carlton University, I am in shock, that you accept and support the notion of government supported and controlled press anywhere on earth.
That is an absolute death-blow to the slightest notion of the free press.
Bende / little fascists
Pls give me a break, your orban character destroyed a country’s democracy, free press and right of expression included, and you are clamoring for democracy, just for yourself!
Mr. Adam,
You should have removed bende79 long ago. He is an ignorant troll just adding his crap wherever he can. The Fidesz media do not allow any dissenting comments on their sites nor pages.