Pro-Fidesz pollster sees Jobbik support collapsing, LMP doubling its base

If we take the Nézőpont Intézet’s most recent polling numbers at face value, we see that Jobbik’s support has dropped significantly between July and November, while the Politics Can Be Different party has doubled its base of voters. In numbers released this weekend, Nézőpont found that among decided voters Fidesz support stands at 48%, while Jobbik has dropped to 16%. As a point of comparison, in July Jobbik still garnered 23% in support. Meanwhile, LMP now stands at 8%, up from 4% in July. As well, it’s worth noting that LMP’s leader, Bernadett Szél, is the most popular among opposition political leaders and her party appears to be finding its voice after a period of uncertainty brought on by the departure of her predecessor, András Schiffer. Ms. Szél has partnered with conservative politician György Gémesi of the now defunct Magyar Demokrata Fórum.

Bernadett Szél in the middle, with György Gémesi to the left and Ákos Hadházy to the right, at a rally this weekend in Kecskemét.

Nézőpont of course also looked at the levels of support for the Hungarian Socialist Party and the Democratic Coalition, both of which are involved in sometimes acrimonious negotiations with each other, rife with leaks to the media. MSZP has the support of 9%, while DK is supported by 8%. This figure will undoubtedly strengthen Ferenc Gyurcsány’s resolve to get at least 40% of the single member constituencies in a deal that would see MSZP and DK run a single, candidate in each of the 106 ridings.

According to Nézőpont, only Fidesz, Jobbik, MSZP, DK and LMP would pass the minimum 5% threshold for parliamentary representation and no other party comes even close, except possibly Momentum–a party that most stubbornly refuses cooperation with any other political group. Momentum stands at 4%, Együtt garners 2% and the Párbeszéd party stagnates at just 1%.

Fidesz must indeed see LMP as a future potent threat. Over the weekend, Fidesz referred to the small green party as “one of the loudest representatives of the interests of the Soros empire.” The ruling party also charges Ms. Szél as someone who “meets one after the other with Soros’ reliable allies.”

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