Fidesz on track to win three-fourths majority in 2018 elections

If Tárki’s most recent polling numbers are accurate, the question ahead of the April 2018 elections is whether Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party gains two-thirds of the seats in parliament or three-fourths. With Fidesz support now pegged at 59% in the Tárki poll–representing a 20% increase over the last two years–and in light of single constituency ridings that were redrawn under the current regime to favour Fidesz, the ruling party is likely to scoop up all but a small handful of the 106 ridings, while scoring close to two thirds in the popular vote.

Among decided voters, Fidesz stands at 59%. Jobbik comes in an extremely distant second at 17%, representing a drop of 2%. The Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) is holding on to 12% and increased its support slightly, by 1%, despite complete political drift among socialists, a mere six months before national elections. The Democratic Coalition continues to stagnate at 5%, which is right on the minimum threshold required for parliamentary representation. In the Tárki poll, the Politics Can Be Different party (LMP) falls short, with just 4%, while the once hopeful Momentum party drops from 3% to 2%.  The tiny Együtt and Párbeszéd parties, which plan to contest the 2018 elections as an alliance, together stand at a mere 2%.

Fully 34% of Hungarians are undecided and most in this category are unlikely to vote in April 2018. There is nothing in the Tárki numbers that would offer even a glimmer of hope to the opposition. The left-centre opposition parties are nowhere closer to any kind of cooperation nor is there any sign of agreement in terms of a joint candidate for prime minister, even though Péter Balázs, a former foreign minister, appears to have thrown his hat into the ring and is an acceptable choice for MSZP. If these numbers stick, the opposition’s role will be to keep the Fidesz majority in parliament to less than three fourths. Anything beyond this may be wishful thinking.

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