Fidesz on track to win three-fourths majority in 2018 elections

If Tárki’s most recent polling numbers are accurate, the question ahead of the April 2018 elections is whether Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party gains two-thirds of the seats in parliament or three-fourths. With Fidesz support now pegged at 59% in the Tárki poll–representing a 20% increase over the last two years–and in light of single constituency ridings that were redrawn under the current regime to favour Fidesz, the ruling party is likely to scoop up all but a small handful of the 106 ridings, while scoring close to two thirds in the popular vote.

Among decided voters, Fidesz stands at 59%. Jobbik comes in an extremely distant second at 17%, representing a drop of 2%. The Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) is holding on to 12% and increased its support slightly, by 1%, despite complete political drift among socialists, a mere six months before national elections. The Democratic Coalition continues to stagnate at 5%, which is right on the minimum threshold required for parliamentary representation. In the Tárki poll, the Politics Can Be Different party (LMP) falls short, with just 4%, while the once hopeful Momentum party drops from 3% to 2%.  The tiny Együtt and Párbeszéd parties, which plan to contest the 2018 elections as an alliance, together stand at a mere 2%.

Fully 34% of Hungarians are undecided and most in this category are unlikely to vote in April 2018. There is nothing in the Tárki numbers that would offer even a glimmer of hope to the opposition. The left-centre opposition parties are nowhere closer to any kind of cooperation nor is there any sign of agreement in terms of a joint candidate for prime minister, even though Péter Balázs, a former foreign minister, appears to have thrown his hat into the ring and is an acceptable choice for MSZP. If these numbers stick, the opposition’s role will be to keep the Fidesz majority in parliament to less than three fourths. Anything beyond this may be wishful thinking.


  1. “Mafia State”, “Viktator”……. None of the slander, the distortions seem to work. Perhaps opposition should try something different for a change. Perhaps, the left can start by owning up to the 2002-2010 economic disaster they left the country with, the effects of which are still felt today. Then people might feel comfortable with them at least understanding the fact that they messed up, with serious consequences for Hungary & Hungarians, and hopefully they can be trusted not to repeat, since at least they understand they screwed up. Furthermore, they should give Fidesz credit where credit is due, whether on re-stabilizing the economy, Hungary & Hungarians first, as opposed to “global village” first, or on making the right call in regards to the migrant invasion. And from there, come up with solutions that will build on the current situation. Or just keep repeating “mafia state”, “mafia state”, “mafia state”. Perhaps, eventually it might work!

  2. Dear Hungarian opposition voters:

    In the 2018 elections, please just stay home! The ragtag “left-wing” opposition is just running to secure a job for a handful of their politicians. They know that they have NO chance of winning and they are no longer even trying to win. Orban needs people like Gyurcsany and the ruins of MSZP to be his phony opposition. He needs them to legitimize his rule as a true democracy, with “opposition parties.”

    JUST BOYCOTT THE OPPOSITION, which is no opposition at all, and boycott the whole regime. STAY HOME. Let Orban win 90% of the seats in parliament or more. And let Gyurcsany and MSZP disappear from the political scene with their heads bowed in shame.

  3. With the incumbent party holding total legislative and judicial power, Hungary is a democracy in name only and elections have lost their meaning. FIDESZ has an indirect but complete grip on industry and the media. It is surprising but understandable how popular they remain with the electorate, but it is harder to grasp why the EU continues to support this evolved form of organized crime.

    • That is nonsense! There are plenty of media outlets that are critical of the current government. Not to mention that most of the Western media is against it from outside. Media does cross borders these days! As for your EU comment? Pure hypocrisy! For instance, putting aside what some supposedly impartial orgs say, if we are to compare the facts, Germany’s media is far less free than Hungary’s. When its national media failed to cover the rape & molestation of 1,200 women in one night, just so they would give the authorities a chance to try to cover it up for five whole days, I think the cat came out of the bag! As for the recent attempts to intimidate social media outlets into censoring anti-migrant messages? Common! Other than that, congratulations on fitting in the “mafia state” & “Viktator” concepts both into one message. Do you still think it works?

  4. A parlamentery system can not be a democracy !
    They may only behave somewhat in a democratic fashion, but that is about all. Like the British.
    The point is that they are silent about the what is going on in the former Habsburg empire.
    Austria (Kurz) Chekia (Babis),Slovakia (Duda),Poland (Kazincky),Hungary (Orban) all popularly elected anti leftists and anti Brussel, european political uprisings are moving forward.
    Even, Merkel herself has not succeeded at the polls. Her party only received one percent more at the polls than Hitler back in 1932.
    So just what is the future of this european union?
    Is Mr.Sorors worry of his $ 18 billion investment to come to influence and control the situation?
    Will it all be a lost investment?

  5. Surprised to see such robust trolling. I wonder if they are in Hungary or somewhere off-shore.

  6. Pingback: Medián poll has Fidesz at 61% support

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