Failed referendum boosts Fidesz popularity, as support for Jobbik tumbles

Communication must truly be everything and reality is perhaps little more than a fleeting and malleable perception. The first public opinion poll conducted after the anti-migrant referendum, which failed to reach the minimum turnout threshold to be considered valid, shows major gains for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party and a marked drop in support for Jobbik–a party that started its political career on the most extreme fringes of the far-right, but which is now more moderate than the extremist Fidesz.

Závecz Research, an independent polling firm not aligned with the government, conducted its poll after two critical, highly reported events: the end result of the October 2nd referendum and the politically motivated shuttering of Népszabadság, the country’s largest opposition print daily. The poll found that support for Fidesz rose by 4% since September, to 49%. This is also much higher than where the ruling party was in August, when its popularity stood at 43%. It is clear that the over-the-top anti-migrant campaign and government-orchestrated fear mongering has increase the ruling party’s base of supporters.

The real loser, however, appears to be Jobbik. Now that Fidesz has assumed the far-right language once associated primarily with Jobbik, the party is bleeding away support to the government. Since August, Jobbik has lost 5% in support and now stands at just 17%. The Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) continues to trail badly at 14%, having lost 3% in support over the last two months. The Democratic Coalition (DK), led by former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, dropped 1% and now has 8% in support, while the Politics Can Be Different (Lehet Más a Politika -LMP) green party continues to hover at 5%.

Viktor Orbán observes a simulated terrorist attack in Budapest, and the subsequent counter-terror response.

Viktor Orbán observes a simulated terrorist attack in Budapest, and the subsequent counter-terrorism response.

All other smaller liberal and left-leaning parties are far below the 5% threshold necessary for representation in parliament, with Együtt (Together) at 3% and Párbeszéd (Dialogue), as well as the Hungarian Liberal Party at 1%.

A staggeringly large percentage of Fidesz voters (82%) believe that Hungary is headed in the right direction under Prime Minister Orbán. In stark contrast, 90% of MSZP voters and 96% of DK supporters are pessimistic about where Fidesz is taking the country.

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