Interfering in personal lives of Hungarians will lead to Orbán’s demise

Political scientist László Lengyel gave an excellent interview this weekend to Hungary’s left-centre Népszava daily. The chat, with Népszava’s Tamás Bihari, began with a comparison to Rudyard Kipling’s Jungle Book and to the king of the jungle, Shere Khan. Mr. Lengyel had previously referred to Viktor Orbán as a tiger, and as the merciless king of the jungle. “Between 2010 and 2014, Mr. Orbán’s personal tragedy has been his decision to essentially exterminate the other animals in the jungle, and above all, his opponents. Beyond him, no other predator had the courage to step out of the cave. Everyone was frightened that Shere Khan would strike. Even Shere Khan’s own followers, his believers, were fearful of him,” said Mr. Lengyel, as he weaved Mr. Orbán’s narrative seamlessly into the narrative of the Jungle Book’s aging tiger.

Mr. Orbán has allowed himself to believe that he is invincible, irreplaceable and that fear would solve everything and keep his regime intact. Yet Mr. Lengyel gave a few examples of how fear is no longer working as it did in the past. One such instance involves voting patterns. With a crucial three-way by-election coming up in Tapolca on April 12th, Mr. Lengyel is predicting that voters will once again demonstrate that they no longer fear Mr. Orbán’s regime, much like they did in Veszprém when independent candidate Zoltán Kész, supported by most of the left-centre opposition, won a decisive victory against his Fidesz opponent. Mr. Lengyel said that he visited the town of Ajka, which forms part of the Tapolca riding, and observed that “Fidesz has more or less already lost.” Mr. Lengyel seems to suggest that the real question is whether the joint Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP)  and Democratic Coalition (DK) candidate is able to keep the riding from slipping into the hands of Jobbik.

László Lengyel. Photo: MTI / László Beliczay

László Lengyel. Photo: MTI / László Beliczay

Thus far, the MSZP-DK campaign has been inept, in that it made no effort to build on the success and popularity of Ajka’s Socialist mayor, Béla Schwartz. Ajka’s unemployment rate is only 3.2%, the town’s industrial park is buzzing with activity, the vast socialist era prefab apartment blocks have been renovated and the area is awash in European Union funds. Still, Mr. Lengyel believes that Fidesz will have an uphill battle if it is to win the riding of Tapolca, although it remains to be seen whether Jobbik or MSZP-DK stands a better chance of finishing on top.

“For a long time, fear has worked well, especially in smaller communities. People knew that if they put the “x” in the wrong place, there will be no public works projects, they might get fired from their municipal jobs or from public institutions. In villages, there are few jobs. One of the regime’s pillars–namely, fear–is collapsing. It didn’t work in Veszprém either where even in the smallest communities, people voted with head held high for Zoltán Kész, despite the crass threats. The spell has been broken: nothing happened with opposition voters after Mr. Kész won. Civil courage has started to appear. In Tapolca, Sümeg and Ajka even civil servants know that the regime can’t just go ahead and do anything it pleases with them,” said Mr. Lengyel.

The political scientist believes that a turning point may have been when the Orbán regime decided that it would start to dictate lifestyle choices to ordinary Hungarians: when it effectively invaded the private sphere of the average citizen. Mr. Lengyel explains that most Hungarians were not especially disturbed when the government went after public institutions (the courts, the central bank, etc.). But they are generally far less tolerant when it comes to the state dictating how they are to lead their private lives.

“Most Hungarians feel that public institutions, like the constitutional court, the central bank and many others are distant. But when the government began to interfere in their lives, with issues such as the Internet tax, mandatory drug tests, tolls and forced store closures on Sundays, tens of thousands of ‘hard-working ordinary people’ demanded that they be left alone. Their worldview does not include having to think about where or how many times they click when on the Internet. Nor does it include not being able to spend Sunday in the mall. Are they going to tell me that I have to go to church on Sunday? What’s up with that? Politics began to ruffle the feathers of everyday life,” explained Mr. Lengyel.

That having been said, Mr. lengyel added that the regime is able to “limp along” with the current modest levels of economic growth. At the moment, Hungary’s GDP is growing by 2% to 2.5%. But EU funds actually comprise up to 1% of this growth. Consumers will also likely have more money to spend, following the government’s decision to require banks to convert all lines of credit and mortgages previously denominated in Swiss francs into forints. Greater consumer spending will lead to a further rise in the GDP, as will planned increases in wages and pensions. And Mr. Lengyel predicts that Mr. Orbán will have liquid funds to spend, once again, starting in 2017 and which he can use for pre-election ‘goodies.’

But the real problem is tied to both the lack of private investment in Hungary, as well as to a dramatic decline in the quality of public services, especially in the fields of health care and education. “The educational system is rotting away, which will have an impact on the quality of the workforce. Growth is not sustainable when social inequality increases,” added Mr. Lengyel.

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