New Medián poll shows Fidesz winning two-thirds majority on Sunday

If the opposition needs any further impetus to somehow coordinate and get its act together, a new poll by Medián should give them reason for alarm. According to one of Hungary’s most reputable polling firms, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz is on track to win a two-thirds majority on Sunday–performing better than he did in 2014. This is based on the prediction that Fidesz has managed to effectively mobilize its voters in rural Hungary, especially in villages. It’s worth noting that Medián is the only pollster predicting a super majority for Fidesz.

Let’s look at the numbers. When it comes to votes for party lists, through which 93 seats are decided, Medián predicts (and the polling firm tries to take into consideration the impact of voters that are hiding their true intentions):

  • FIDESZ: 46%
  • JOBBIK: 19%
  • MSZP-Párbeszéd: 14%
  • Politics Can Be Different (LMP) 7%
  • Democratic Coalition (DK): 6%
  • Momentum: 3%
  • Együtt: 1%
  • Two-Tailed Dog Party: 1%
  • Other parties: 3%

These polling numbers also have a bearing on votes cast on the second ballot, for individual riding-level candidates in 106 electoral districts. But the most significant factor here is whether the opposition parties are able to unite and field a single candidate in swing ridings. On Wednesday morning, MSZP-P, DK and Együtt reached an agreement impacting a dozen electoral districts, where the Fidesz candidate will face a more united centre-left. (At the time of writing this article, LMP only agreed to pull back its candidate in one swing district, namely Csepel-Soroksár, where the Együtt candidate, Szabolcs Szabó, is left standing against Szilárd Németh of Fidesz.)

Traditionally, it was believed that higher turn-out favours the opposition. Medián’s new poll calls traditional wisdom into question. Fully 66% of respondents are committed to voting on Sunday, but one of the most significant jumps in projected turn-out is in villages, where Fidesz is the strongest. In Hungary’s smallest communities, 68% of respondents indicated they would vote (up from 54% merely one month ago). Fidesz is mobilizing successfully. Fidesz support in villages stands at 48% according to this poll.

Medián’s seat prediction for the Hungarian parliament. Source: HVG.

Medián’s seat projection in the new Hungarian parliament gives Fidesz 142. This is up significantly from 133 seats in 2014. Jobbik is predicted to have 22 (down from 23), MSZP-P together will have 19, LMP will end up with 8 and DK with 7. Medián also predicts one seat won by the German minority list. This poll, of course, does not take into the consideration the deal agreed to this morning in Csepel-Soroksár, which gives the Együtt candidate a good chance of keeping this riding and returning to parliament.

However, whether Együtt, MSZP-P, DK, LMP or Jobbik wins a riding here or a riding there, will not matter one bit, if Fidesz-KDNP is returned with a two-thirds majority. Not only will every opposition party face the justified wrath of 55% Hungarians who want to see a change in government, they will also face annihilation at the hands of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz.

22 Comments

  1. It’s a shame the left/liberal parties are so fragmented and just can’t get it together. But the taint of Gyurcsàny is hard to wash away.

  2. With political enemies like those of Fidesz, who needs friends ?

    Hungary and Europe is coming to a crossroads on April 8, 2018. Seemingly insignificant events in Central Europe had a powerful impact on Europe and the world during the beginning of the 20th Century. Regardless of the outcome of Hungary’s national election’s this weekend, a fuse has already been lit.

  3. It seems that the people of Hungary appreciated the Fidesz government and the improvements that have taken place in Hungary after the long socialists government failures. Therefore, it is logical that the present government is re-elected. It makes a difference when the prime minister of a country puts its people first.

    • You sound like someone paid by Fidesz to spread its propaganda. Not anyone with the slightest knowledge of Fidesz’s history of ruling —corrupt, cynical, xenophobic, authoritarian–can take your note seriously.

  4. Bonaventure says:

    I don’t have a lot of faith in Hungarian pollsters. If you look at Iranytu, Publicus, Republikon, Nezopont and Median, they are all across the board in their numbers. For instance, the difference in measured support between Republikon and Median for the Socialists is 5%. The numbers for Fidesz also vary by 5% between the two pollsters.

  5. “Not only will every opposition party face the justified wrath of 55% of Hungarians who want to see a change in government, they will also face annihilation at the hands of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz.”

    1) Just like in Canada where on average 60% of voters do not get the government they want, so to in Hungary those 55% cannot be assumed to all want the same change. I am sure that many Jobbik or LMP supporters would rather have status quo than see a Socialist-DK dominated mandate. Non Jobbik opposition would also be uneasy with the prospect of Vona being the next prime minister. So, this call for all of them to unite in order to defeat Orban was absurd from the very beginning.

    2) The only reason opposition will face annihilation is because of this:

    http://factsmaps.com/projected-real-wage-growth-2018-european-countries/

    And this:

    http://www.portfolio.hu/en/economy/hungary-may-become-growth-champion-for-the-first-time-this-year.35848.html

    And this:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-migration-eu-has-won-the-argument/

    And there could be a lot more to point to, but I think it is enough!

    If things will go as it looks like they will this election, the next very next day, the opposition has to abandon the already not very credible claim that Orban is destroying Hungary. They have to instead acknowledge that Hungary is on the right track in many ways, after it neared disaster following 2002-2010, and they have to offer credible plans for offering even better, while keeping Hungary on the right track in all other aspects. In the absence of this, they will indeed face hard times, and it is their own fault for believing their own propaganda and expecting the people to also swallow it, even though it increasingly crashes with reality.

      • Nah! Just some NYT propaganda! I cited stats & reliable forecasts. You cited an opinion piece, based on some anecdotal evidence.

          • You got serious issues! There is a difference between citing hard facts, and opinion. You cited an ideologically-biased opinion, where the exercise was to show that not all is well, and focused on it in a manner that tried to present the aspect that is not all well, as being the overall situation. One could do that with any country on this planet. “Canada’s economy doing OK, but not every one is sharing in recovery” then go to some native reserves or city slums showing misery of some, disregarding everyone else who is doing better, declaring the economic improvement to be a “Mirage”. So this is what is wrong with that opinion piece. Can you tell me what is wrong with the forecast of average real 4.9% wage growth for this year for Hungary? Can you claim that somehow average Hungarians will not benefit from that?

          • Reality Check says:

            Three possibilities here:
            1) You didn’t read the NYT article.
            2) You have reading comprehension issues.
            3) You are a liar.

            Why? Because the article was full of facts.

            1) “Hungary has slipped to 29th place from 20th on the Euro Health Consumer Index, a comparison of European health systems.”
            2)”Student performance in reading, math and science has worsened, according to the Program for International Student Assessment, which compares global education systems.”
            3) And as other Central European countries have become less corrupt, Hungary has become significantly more so, according to the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators.
            4) Out of 750,000 new jobs since 2010 claimed by government 350,000 are outside of Hungary.
            5) 200,000 fostered workers in 2017.

            Are just some of the stats and facts in the piece you claim is void of facts and is strictly an ‘opinion’ piece.

            Someone really does have serious issues – just not sure which of the three it is.

          • Facts? Yes, but served up within a distorted context, which relegates them to opinion formed on distortion.

            Can’t have good health care without a healthy economy. Hungary’s economy is just now coming back to health, after the last government’s economic fiasco. With that there should be improvement in health care, education & so on. But responsible improvement, not the kind that gets Hungary back to the IMF.

            That is just one example where facts are presented in a distorted manner by taking it out of context. When that happens, I do not consider it to have been a presentation of facts.

            We have seen a very similar effort to distort facts, with Obama in the US, where they pinned the 2009-2012 misery, ranging from loss of employment to increasing poverty on him, even though it was in fact a legacy of the previous government, and its failure to be a responsible steward of the economy. Going by your logic, you should be in agreement with the Republicans on that one. Are you? Or are you selectively biased in your reasoning?

          • Don Kichote says:

            Peters Facts are only believing, he can´t answer questions about that what he wrote. His next believing s:

            „Facts? Yes, but served up within a distorted context, which relegates them to opinion formed on distortion.
            Can’t have good health care without a healthy economy. Hungary’s economy is just now coming back to health, after the last government’s economic fiasco.”

            Hungary´s healthcare was much more better in 2009 than today. So Peter is not a liar, because he live not in Hungary, because of that he know nothing about for what he is writing for, he has only this in Head what he like do believe. He is a believer, a real catholiban.

          • Yes Don Quixote. It was much better in 2009, because Hungary was not even half way through with the consequences it had to endure thanks to the near-economic collapse it suffered. Not to mention that the lingering effects of overspending through debt accumulation were still being felt in 2009. Debt deleveraging only started after 2010, in other words, the next government had to pick up the tab.

            For context, take a look at US median household income.

            https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

            It took until 2015 for it to recover to 2009 levels. 2009 was considered to be the debts of the crisis, yet it continued to decline long after.

            Now, arguably Hungary’s twin FX debt bubble was more toxic than the US financial crisis. And unlike the US, Hungary is not the custodian of the world’s reserve currency, therefore it could not just print a butt-load of money to get itself out of the crisis.

            So, yes, just like the article, & reality check, you cited a fact (health care better in 2009), without considering the cause of the fact (overspending in 2002-2010, and debt deleveraging thereafter). You do not want to consider it, because it is simply inconvenient to do so.

            BTW, I never mentioned where I live, so do not assume. According to some on this site, I live on a “Fidesz troll farm”.

          • Don Kichote says:

            “Real Median Household Income in the United States” ? What is US, is it near Budapest? Which presentation is shown in a distorted manner? By the way, I can open my window and I can look out, to see. You must believe.

  6. Orban put the country on the right track (no pun intended), the economy is growing fast, the country’s infrastructure is getting better and better year after year, people have more money and few want to be next door neighbor with Blacks and Arabs.
    A 2/3 for the Fidesz will be by the people and for the people.
    What’s wrong with that?

    • Nothing wrong with you or anyone else holding that opinion, but what about the democratic process? Taken from another website, a poster called “Tappanch” says:

      “Time allotted to Fidesz vs (all opposition parties combined) in news programs.
      the week starting on 2018.02.21 [2018.03.21]:
      State television “Duna”: Fidesz 81% [65%] vs Opposition 19% [35%]
      “TV2”, run by an Orban-created oligarch: Fidesz 89% [76%] vs Opposition 11% [24%]”

      Do you think this is fair when all taxpayers (including those who vote for the opposition) are funding State-run media?

  7. “A 2/3 for the Fidesz will be by the people and for the people.
    What’s wrong with that?”

    That those “people” compromise a minority?

  8. Pingback: New Publicus poll — Fidesz losing support, hung parliament possible with high turnout

  9. Yes, it seems just fair and justified when you recall a basic principle of democracy: the majority rules. The minority still have the right, of course, to express their views and hope it will win over enough people to turn the table so that they could dominate state media and the decision making progress in all possible levels. And that’s fine. If your ideas of governing enjoys the support of the majority of the people, so be it, the majority rules. By the people? Checked. For the people? The jury is out.

  10. Hungarian Free Press says:

    For those who are interested: HFP’s sister publication, the Kanadai Magyar Hírlap, is conducting a little poll to measure the voting intentions (where applicable) of our readers. As with comments, only the most active readers tend to fill these out, so all that an online poll like this will eventually show is a general picture of the political views/landscape among our more active readers.

    If you’re interested in voting and/or the results as they stand so far (the poll was published Thursday morning, Ottawa time), here’s the link: http://kanadaihirlap.com/2018/04/05/a-felmeresek-dzsungeleben-a-kmh-olvasojakent-on-melyik-listara-szavaz-aprilis-8-an/

    For those of you would like to participate in the poll, but don’t intend to vote in the Hungarian elections, there is an option that may apply to you as well in the poll.

  11. Congrats to Endre Hann. He was much maligned for doing so, but called it as he saw it – bang on.

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