Fidesz sees continued decline in popularity according to Republikon poll

We can say with a degree of certainty that the governing Fidesz party’s downward popularity numbers, as seen in the polls of the past months, represent a clear trend in Hungarian politics away from Viktor Orbán, who faces a national election in spring 2018. According to the Republikon poll released this week, Fidesz has dropped by 6% in the last quarter, while the opposition parties have together improved their standing by 8%. Over the past month, Fidesz saw a decline of 2%, the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) stayed steady with no change in its support, the Democratic Coalition and the small Együtt party improved their standing by 1% each and the fledgling Momentum Movement increased its base of sympathizers by 2%.

Nationally, when only looking at decided voters, Fidesz is now at 45%, MSZP garners 19%, Jobbik fell back slightly to 17%, DK reaches 6%, the Politics Can Be Different green party (LMP) checks in at 5%, Momentum achieves 4%, Együtt is up at 2% and the tiny Hungarian Liberal Party of Gábor Fodor stagnates at 1%.

Republikon points out that a mere five months after it was formed, Momentum’s support base is closing in on that of LMP, which has been represented in parliament since 2010. The current results suggest that Momentum stands a good chance of surpassing the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation.

Source: 24.hu

When broken down by region, the left-wing opposition parties together surpass Fidesz’s popularity levels in two regions: Central Hungary (which includes Budapest and the surrounding Pest county) and southwestern Hungary. The left-wing is tied with Fidesz in southeastern Hungary. Fidesz, however, remains by far the strongest in some of the poorest regions of rural Hungary, especially the northeast and is also the strongest in the much more prosperous northwest, along the border with Austria.

Overall, 32% of Hungarians would like to see Mr. Orbán’s Fidesz govern for a third consecutive term after the 2018 elections, while 23% prefer a left-centre or liberal government. Just 12% of Hungarians would like Jobbik to form government. One third of Hungarians are undecided.

These polling results offer a small glimmer of hope for the opposition, but their continued in-fighting is hardly reassuring. This time, it is mainly between László Botka, the MSZP candidate for prime minister in 2018 and former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány of the Democratic Coalition. Mr. Gyurcsány had quipped that Mr. Botka was more inclined to meet with Viktor Orbán, and that he had met with him on more occasions, than with any left-centre opposition politician. It is true that Mr. Gyurcsány, after numerous attempts, managed to chat over the phone with Mr. Botka, who seems disinterested in these discussions.

Mr. Botka, however, called Mr. Gyurcsány a liar and added: “his person is the obstacle to a change in government.” Mr. Botka insists that MSZP is looking to partner with DK in the election, but that Mr. Gyurcsány cannot appear on a common party list. “He is Hungary’s most divisive and most rejected politician. He is the obstacle to a change in government. I regret that he does not understand this. His person seriously endangers the entire democratic side,” added Mr. Botka. But part of this reality is that DK does still attract a solid and steady 6% in support.

There is a very modest opportunity for compromise. If Mr. Gyurcsány agrees to not appear on a joint party list for the election, Mr. Botka seems willing to consider supporting his candidacy as a joint candidate in a single constituency riding.

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