We are entering the final stretch of Hungary’s anti-migrant referendum, scheduled for October 2nd. A new poll by Republikon suggests that 48% of the electorate is certain to cast a ballot, while an additional 23% say that they will likely vote. These polling results suggest that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will get exactly what he is looking for: a massive “no” vote, rejecting European Union “migrant quotas” for member states (73% will vote ‘no’ according to Republikon) and the referendum may also be valid, with participation surpassing the 50% + 1 threshold. But Republikon also cautions that it is notoriously difficult to accurately gauge participation levels through polls. Many Fidesz voters, who are the most likely to cast a ballot in the referendum, may simply feel social pressure to tell pollsters that they will vote, when in fact they have little inclination to actually do so. In other words, participation levels reported by pollsters may be overestimated.
Additionally, now that left-centre opposition parties have launched a more visible campaign advocating for Hungarians to boycott the vote, the proportion of voters who, out of principle, will stay home, has increased. The proportion of voters who intend to boycott the vote increased from 17% to 21% over the last month.
The liberal Együtt (Together) party and two smaller partners produced a campaign poster featuring Hungarians sitting out the referendum and giving the government the finger. Literally. Their slogan: “This is the answer to a stupid question. Those who stay at home, vote for Europe.”
Republikon’s most recent poll projects the following results:
No: 73%
Yes: 4%
Disqualified: 6%
The satirical Hungarian Two-tailed Dog Party is actively (and very visibly) campaigning, in order to convince Hungarians to cast an invalid ballot out of protest.
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The conservative Heti Válasz print weekly asked several prominent religious leaders from different faith communities what they think about the referendum and how they intend to vote. The two Roman Catholic bishops both lined up behind Mr. Orbán’s referendum and pledged to vote “no” in the anti-migrant plebiscite. “I will vote ‘no,’ because I am Hungarian,” declared Béla Balás, the Roman Catholic Bishop of Kaposvár. Bishop Balás might want to vote ‘no’ to confirm that he is a patriotic Hungarian, but considering his support for a referendum and government that completely lacks any sense of compassion, I wonder what he might do to confirm that he is actually a Christian…
Bishop Miklós Beer of Vác is also voting ‘no,’ adding: “The referendum is a message to the leaders of the European Union that it is not possible to solve the issue of mass migration like this.” Bishop Beer suggests that Catholic faithful vote their conscience in the referendum.
Fülöp Kocsis, Metropolitan of the Greek Catholic Church in Hajdúdorog, seems to be among the most enthusiastic supporters of a ‘no’ vote. “We need to be able to say “no” to those who are trying to force their way in,” said the Greek Catholic leader.
Sándor Németh, Pastor at the Faith Church–a Pentecostal mega-church in Budapest–also supports the Orbán government in the referendum. “In spite of international pressure, we must insist on our national sovereignty,” said Rev. Németh.
Sándor Szenczy, a Baptist pastor, is also voting ‘no’ in the referendum, but seemed to provide some lukewarm criticism of the referendum question and his vote seems a little half-hearted. “We cannot answer in any other way, when the question is posed in this manner,” said Rev. Szenczy.
The Hungarian Jewish community seems divided on the referendum. Rabbi Zoltán Radnóti has decided to boycott the referendum, noting: “I will not play this game,” and referring to the way in which the government uses and abuses society’s fears of ‘the other.’
Rabbi Slomó Köves of the Chabad-based Unified Hungarian Jewish Congregation, however, stands with the Orbán government and he plans to vote “no.” Rabbi Köves notes: “For the Jewish community, these questions are connected to our everyday physical safety and risks to our safety. As such, I do not think it to be a good idea if the settlement of migrants became mandatory or uncontrollable.”
