A new regional alliance – without Hungary

The 25-year-old Visegrad Group, also called the Visegrad Four, is supposed to be an alliance of four Central European states – Czech RepublicHungaryPoland andSlovakia – for the purposes of furthering European integration and advancing political, military, and economic cooperation.

As it turns out the Visegrad Four is dead.  In the last couple of months it has become clear that the Visegrad Four members fundamentally disagree on how to approach the EU, achieve energy cooperation and deal with Russia.  As always, Hungary is the odd man out.

Poland, by far the largest county in the group, is solidly pro-American and anti-Putin. Their GDP is larger than the other three members together, and Poland is a rising power with political ambitions.  Polish leaders are threatened by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, and want to play with the “big boys” of the EU – Germany and France. They have less interest and patience with the smaller countries of the region.

The Czech Republic and Slovakia have close cultural and economic ties and, having been invaded by the Soviets in 1968, they are genuinely worried about Putin’s Russia. They don’t like what they see in Hungary, and don’t seem to appreciate Orban’s unpredictable domestic and foreign policies.

Federal Chancellor of Austria Werner Faymann (far left), Prime Minister  Bohuslav Sobotka of the Czech Republik, and Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico in Slavkov on 29 January 2015.

Federal Chancellor of Austria Werner Faymann (far left), Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka of the Czech Republik, and Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico in Slavkov on 29 January 2015.

Mr. Orbán is positioning Hungary as a Putin ally and a sensitive and understanding friend of Russia.  Budapest is opposing sanctions against the Kremlin and Orban, just like Putin, has demanded autonomy for ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine.  He favors the federalization of Ukraine as the Russians do.

The tension between Hungary and its Visegrad Four partners is obvious.  On Mr. Orbán’s recent visit to Poland he got a cold shoulder.  Polish Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz lectured him. Then she claimed that they had a “frank and difficult” conversation while she avoided eye-contact with the Hungarian leader at their press conference.

Even Orban’s conservative Polish pals have humiliated him.  They refused to meet him; he has become a pariah in Warsaw.

On 29 January, at the Baroque palace in Slavkov in the Czech Republic, leaders of three countries — Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia — signed a declaration of establishing a new regional platform, that they call the Slavkov Triangle.

Their initial goal is to improve energy and transport infrastructure, youth employment and cross-border relations.   Heads of government will meet every year, and the next summit will be held in Slovakia. Daily work will be coordinated by a tripartite working group of deputy foreign ministers.  The declaration was signed by Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka of the Czech Republik, Federal Chancellor of Austria, Werner Faymann, and Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico.

Budapest was not included. Mr. Orbán has not been invited.  The Visegrad Group is dead and Hungary is hopelessly isolated.

 

György Lázár

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